Headline Human Genome, OncoGenex stand out small caps so far in 2009
Source EP Vantage
Company Aurobindo Pharma 
Related: AkornAlgetaArray BioPharmaBioCryst PharmaceuticalsBioMS MedicalBiotaCatalyst Pharmaceutical PartnersCell TherapeuticsCelldex TherapeuticsCortex PharmaceuticalsDendreonHuman Genome SciencesIdenix PharmaceuticalsImmunomedicsImmunosynIpca LaboratoriesLa Jolla PharmaceuticalMannKindOncoGenex PharmaceuticalsOsiris TherapeuticsProgenics PharmaceuticalsProtalix BioTherapeuticsQuestcor PharmaceuticalsRepros TherapeuticsSalix PharmaceuticalsSavient PharmaceuticalsSkyePharmaSoseiSynta PharmaceuticalsTitan PharmaceuticalsTorrent PharmaceuticalsTranscept PharmaceuticalsVanda Pharmaceuticals 
Date October 01, 2009
 

As is typical of this high risk, high reward industry, the share price performance of many of the industry’s smaller drug developers so far this year could certainly be described as a rollercoaster ride. 

Although individual factors play a much greater role at the smaller end of the sector this EP Vantage analysis, of share price performance across the first nine months of 2009, reveals certain themes. Generic companies feature heavily in the gainers, mirroring the larger caps, whilst those involved in the influenza field have also made their entry. Notable standouts include Human Genome Sciences, which has seen its market value surge to more than $3bn from $288m at the beginning of the year, and OncoGenex, which has seen its share price rocket 1,100% in just the last nine months (see tables below). 

The lists below have a few notable exceptions which should probably be mentioned. From the small caps, Medarex has gone, following the takeout by  Bristol-Myers Squibb

Small cap analysis

Small cap ($250m-$2.5bn) pharma companies: top risers and fallers in 9M 2009   
    Share price (local currency)  Market capitalisation ($m)   
Rank  Top 5 Risers  31-Dec-08  30-Sep-09  % change  YE 2008  2009 (latest)  EP Vantage comment and analysis 
 1     Human Genome Sciences ($)     2.12    18.82    788%    288    3,063   Positive Benlysta data leaves Human Genome with new bulls 
 2     Dendreon ($)     4.58    27.99    511%    438    3,240   The Dendreon rollercoaster continues 
 3     MannKind ($)     3.43    9.85    187%    350    1,094   Expectation sky-high for Mannkind to deliver blockbuster deal 
 4     Savient Pharmaceuticals ($)     5.79    15.20    163%    316    937   Savient’s gout drug faces final hurdle backed by strong endorsement 
 5     Salix Pharmaceuticals ($)     8.83    21.26    141%    425    1,038   Salix's surprise IBS data fuels shares 
               
  Top 5 Fallers             
 1     BioMS Medical (C$)     3.50    0.33    (91%)    258    27   No happy ever after for BioMS 
 2     Osiris Therapeutics ($)     19.16    6.66    (65%)    626    218   Osiris left clinging to a niche after Prochymal failure 
 3     Progenics Pharmaceuticals ($)     10.31    5.24    (49%)    316    165   Progenics needs the tide to turn on Relistor 
 4     Idenix Pharmaceuticals ($)     5.79    3.09    (47%)    327    205   EventAnalyzer: Weekly Market Movers 
 Questcor Pharmaceuticals ($)   9.31  5.52  (41%)  614  354  EventAnalyzer: Weekly Market Movers 

Amongst both the micro cap gainers, Aurobindo, Protalix, Torrent and Ipca are all active in the generics space. The Indian firms in particular have probably benefitted from bid speculation, as many commentators believe western firms' appetite for this field has yet to be sated. 

Micro cap ($100m-$250m) pharma companies: top risers and fallers in 9M 2009   
    Share price (local currency)  Market capitalisation ($m)   
Rank  Top 5 Risers  31-Dec-08  30-Sep-09  % change  YE 2008  2009 (latest)  EP Vantage comment and analysis 
 1     Aurobindo Pharma (Rs)     167.80    779.10    364%    186    865   EventAnalyzer: Weekly Market Movers 
 2     Protalix BioTherapeutics ($)     1.84    8.26    349%    139    633   Event - Protalix to add further data to the Gaucher's story 
 3     Torrent Pharmaceuticals (Rs)     72.05    315.20    337%    119    551    
 4     Immunomedics ($)     1.70    5.52    225%    128    415   EventAnalyzer: Weekly Market Movers 
 5     Ipca Laboratories (Rs)     366.55    799.55    118%    191    416    
               
  Top 5 Fallers             
 1     Repros Therapeutics ($)     10.52    0.90    (91%)    160    15   EventAnalyzer: Weekly Market Movers 
 2     Synta Pharmaceuticals ($)     6.12    3.10    (49%)    208    105   Glaxo’s decision leaves Synta with few options 
 3     Array BioPharma ($)     4.05    2.38    (41%)    193    115   EventAnalyzer: Daily Market Movers 
 4     Akorn ($)     2.30    1.37    (40%)    207    124    
 5     Celldex Therapeutics ($)     7.92    5.49    (31%)    125    87    

Nano cap analysis

From the nanocaps, any company with a market cap below $25m at the end of 2008 is excluded, in an attempt to weed out some highly volatile and illiquid stocks, often trading on thinly regulated exchanges, that can swing wildly for no apparent reason. However, this has excluded a number of stocks that deserve mentioning. 

Firstly, and most famously, Vanda Pharmaceuticals, which has benefitted from the surprise approval of schizophrenia drug Fanapt in May (Vanda shares rocket after surprise Fanapt approval May 7, 2009). Although the company is still searching for a partner, the stock has risen 2,200% so far this year, giving the company a market value of $306m. 

Tiny partner Titan Pharmaceuticals, which will receive royalties on sales, has notched up gains of a ridiculous sounding 6,800%, giving the group a market value of $80m. 

Norway's Algeta should also start making the grade next year, following an $800m licensing deal with  Bayer over its novel alpha radiation product  alpharadin in September (Algeta aiming for transformation with Bayer deal, September 3, 2009). The group's market value has risen from $19m at the beginning of the year to $366m currently. 

Transcept Pharmaceuticals is another company that will soon qualify for admission, having gained a market listing by buying  Novacea in April. Since then its market value has more than tripled to $180m following a well received deal with  Purdue Pharma (Transcept rolling in cash after Purdue deal with more on the horizon, August 4, 2009).

Nano cap ($25m-$100m) pharma companies: top risers and fallers in 9M 2009   
    Share price (local currency)  Market capitalisation ($m)   
Rank  Top 5 Risers  31-Dec-08  30-Sep-09  % change  YE 2008  2009 (latest)  EP Vantage comment and analysis 
 1     OncoGenex Pharmaceuticals ($)     3.00    36.00    1,100%    33    217   ASCO EventAnalyzer - 2009's winners and losers 
 2     Cell Therapeutics ($)     0.14    1.23    779%    26    689    
 3     Biota (AUS$)     0.34    2.73    715%    47    384   EP Vantage Interview – Biota surfing the Relenza wave 
 4     Sosei (¥)     30,750    186,900    508%    38    234    
 5     BioCryst Pharmaceuticals ($)     1.37    8.24    501%    52    317   BioCryst surges on hopes for intravenous anti-viral 
               
  Top 5 Fallers             
 1     La Jolla Pharmaceutical ($)     0.58    0.21    (63%)    32    14   La Jolla drug failure leaves few options 
 2     Cortex Pharmaceuticals ($)     0.57    0.21    (63%)    27    12    
 3     Catalyst Pharmaceutical Partners ($)     1.80    0.84    (53%)    25    12    
 4     SkyePharma (£)     1.40    0.89    (37%)    46    35    
 5     Immunosyn ($)     0.18    0.12    (33%)    49    32   Financial woes could deflate Immunosyn 
 

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