The recent failure of ViroPharma’s cytomegalovirus drug maribavir in phase III trials was clearly a massive disappointment for investors who had high hopes that the product would provide significant revenue and earnings growth and enhance the company’s reputation as a major specialty player; shares have fallen over 50% since the news to trade at a three-year low of around $5.95, with little sign of a recovery so far.

However, if important regulatory and generic competition decisions go their way this year, coupled with a shrewd company or product acquisition, the outlook for ViroPharma should not be all doom and gloom. With around $300m in cash and chief executive, Vincent Milano, having clearly stated a desire to license new products, particularly for transplantation, an analysis by EP Vantage reveals that the group will not be short of licensing opportunities, with 29 unpartnered transplantation drugs currently in the clinic, split between 24 small-cap and private companies (see table below).