Johnson & Johnson’s HIV treatment Intelence, which won a recommendation for approval from the European Medicines Agency at the end of June, looks set to be the second Tibotec-Virco drug, bought in 2002 for $320m, to reach the market.  

According to EvaluatePharma, the NPV of Intelence, based on consensus sales forecasts, is $1.63bn, far exceeding what the pharma giant paid for the whole company five years ago. Including the NPV of two further products that have progressed successfully following the acquisition, the decision to buy the virology expert in the first place looks like money very well spent. 

The total NPV of the three Tibotec drugs currently ascribed a  value by analysts is $3.71bn, meaning more than $3bn in  value has been added in the last six years.  

Prezista, another HIV drug which was launched in 2006, has an NPV of $1.76bn. Like Intelence, it was in phase II at the time of the acquisition. Prezista has a PDUFA date of 21 October when the FDA will decide whether to expand the label of the drug. Consensus for 2012 sales is already $812m, substantial growth from last year’s $189m.

Another HIV candidate, TMC278, has moved from pre-clinical to phase II, and analysts believe it is now worth $318m to J&J. (See table below)

Big or small

In the bigger picture, Prezista and  Intelence are ranked 12th and 13th most important in terms of NPV for  Johnson & Johnson. Not bad positions, when the price paid for them is considered, and the fact that they are competing with blockbuster products such as Remicade, Concerta and  Tylenol in J&J's expansive portfolio.  

The immunosuppressant Remicade is by far the group’s most valuable product at $16.36bn, and is also in the roll call due to an acquisition; that of  Centocor for $4.9bn in 1999.  

It was already on the market when J&J bought the company, and is now sold for Rheumatoid arthritis and conditions such as Crohn’s disease. With sales and royalties from marketing partners due to J&J of $4.34bn by 2012, it goes a long way to justify the price alone. 

Picking the winners

Close to market, if all goes well, are CNTO 148 and  CNTO 1275, which respectively have NPVs of $10.82bn and $4.24bn. They were both research projects at the time of the  Centocor acquisition, illustrating the progress made in the last nine years.  

The former, called golimumab, has been filed for approval in Rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis, and has a PDUFA date of 27 April 2009, a significant event for the company. European approval is also due early next year. For CNTO 1275, a decision on European approval is due in the second half of this year and on 3 October in the US, in the treatment of severe plaque psoriasis.  

If the Centocor products fulfil their potential, it will demonstrate that  Johnson & Johnson can pick winners among the big and the small acquisition targets.  AstraZeneca, which has been criticised for the amount it paid for MedImmune, will be hoping to see a similar return a few years down the line. (See EP Vantage analysis Astra's acquisition of MedImmune still looks overpriced, June 26, 2008)